Paddle acts as the merchant of record, which means the revenue shown in their dashboard isn't what actually lands in the seller's bank. Before you base a valuation on Paddle metrics, get an independent cross-check.
The problem
Why self-reported data isn't enough
Paddle handles VAT, local taxes, and their own commission (5% + $0.50 per transaction). The gross revenue figure shown in their dashboard can be 20–30% higher than the actual payout to the seller — especially for EU/UK customer bases with high VAT rates.
Paddle often prices tax-inclusively in certain markets. A $99/year subscription in Germany is $99 gross but ~$83 net after 20% VAT. Sellers citing gross revenue without this clarification misrepresent the economics.
Paddle's CSV export structure makes it difficult to compute true monthly churn from subscription start/end events without careful analysis. Sellers may report 'net revenue retention' without disclosing the gross churn rate.
The fix
ProofCap computes net payout from Paddle transaction data — separating gross sales, VAT collected, Paddle fees, and refunds — to give you the real number that matters for valuation.
We map subscription start and cancellation events to compute the actual monthly churn rate and customer lifetime value — not the smoothed MRR metric Paddle's dashboard presents.
Session data from GA4 is compared against subscription counts and implied trial-to-paid conversion rates. Outliers get flagged automatically.
Our AI produces an acquisition plausibility score (0–100) with itemized risk vectors — including any Paddle-specific anomalies in the fee/revenue spread.
ProofCap reconstructs net revenue from raw Paddle transaction events — not from the dashboard's pre-computed MRR metric, which doesn't account for VAT, fees, or refunds.
Watch out for
ProofCap connects directly to the seller's Paddle data at the API level. Free footprint scan to start — full forensic audit from $297.
